The dedication of Pedro Sánchez to continue to exhaust the legislative power, the composition of parliament and its fragmentation leads Spain to a dead end in which the four possible constitutional solutions are concluded.
All doors for the Constitution for political and institutional emergency situations are blocked. The fire caused by the corrupt conspiracy that leads the last two most important employees of the government and the secretaries of PSOE.
At the moment, Sánchez only publishes the message that he is willing to follow until 2027, although there are more and more voices in the PSOE and the government who see it in an open or reserved way from any impossible point.
They believe that the president is on the barrel full of explosives, which means waiting to see if one of the accused contributes more information to justice.
Government sources are likely that Sanchez should appear in the plenary meeting of the congress to give statements, forced by the PP, but also for its parliamentary partners who start to admit that “Support for the PSOE already spot“
It could be that he even announced his appearance in the congress on Monday to alleviate the pressure against him.
In that appearance, the President could announce measures against corruption if the agency that proposes, among other things, to add or changes in contract law.
That is an escape route that Felipe González already uses in his last legislative power, overwhelmed by corruption. Mariano Rajoy also when he appeared in the plenary meeting of the congress when Gürtel’s waste covered him. They both served them To get time, but only for that.
There are other options, but politics and not -institutional, such as the call for an extraordinary congress to strengthen internally in the PSOE. The government would not influence this possibility.
General elections
Only the president of the government can dissolve the courts and convene general elections. In this case, Sánchez refuses to do what socialists such as Emiliano García Page, Susana Díaz Or Felipe González, among other things, and how other leaders of the PSOE start to appreciate, even among his believers.
Their investment partners do not want this option either because this would mean the door with all probability for a PP government and perhaps with Vox.
Junts must have finished applying the Amnesty and ERC Act to be able to culminate the negotiation process of the call “Catalan concert‘And adding is in a bad situation, pending restructuring, so he doesn’t want those elections either.
We can only seem interested in ending the legislative power.
Legally, if Sánchez decided to convene elections, the constitutional term would determine that it would be kept in August, which seems unthinkable, so I would have to wait to make that decision and was in September or October. But for now it does not seem willing to do it.
It could delay the decision that awaits that in 2026 the Andalusian president Juanma Moreno, and to coincide Andaluzas and Generals, but in the middle there would be a few months of Calvary for Sánchez. There would be new revelations of the judicial processes that are underway and a non -durable political scenario, with impossibility to perform standards in the congress.
Dismissal of the President
The resignation of the president would not be new in Spanish democracy to make way for a new Chief Executive who takes on the traffic to elections.
It was in January 1981 when Adolfo Suárez resigned and was replaced by Leopoldo Calvo-Sotelo Until the general elections of October 1982 in which the PSOE of Felipe González was destroyed with an absolute majority.
Now this situation is difficult to imagine, because if Sánchez opposes the mention of early elections, it will arouse much less from the government’s presidency. Unless the scandal grows and there are new revelations of the criminal plot that are reportedly organized Santos Cerdán And José Luis ábalos.
In addition, Suarez was forced to resign in 1981 by his own party, UCD, which was broken into pieces after the leading role in transition. Instead, Sánchez has almost total control over the party, although critical positions have started to grow.
In this case, and only if a hypothesis, if Sanchez resigned, the investment of another president should take place, which does not require more requirement than Spanish and of a legal age and to achieve the support of the majority of the congress.
In the PSOE there is no visible head as a possible successor to the socialist leader, because, for example, the most prominent critic is Emiliano García page, but has no support from most of the party.
María Jesús Montero It is the number two of the party and the government, but she assured herself a year ago, when Sánchez gave herself five days of reflection that if she left. It is likely that the preference of the socialist bases óscar Puente is.
But we return to the output box: Sánchez maintains his idea to move forward and refuses to resign.
To trust
Article 173 of the Constitution ensures that “the President of the Government, earlier consultations in the Council of Ministers, the issue of trusting on their program or a general policy statement for the congress of representatives can evoke.”
If he does that, he needs the support of the simple majority of the congress.
This formula was never used in the congress, but for example if he did it in Catalonia Carles Puigdemont. He served him to continue at the head of the Generalitat in a difficult time.
Puigdemont even has Sánchez several times to undergo a matter of trust, but the president of the government has always refused for the uncertainty of the result.
It is one of the options that leaders of the Socialist shakes, but the socialist leader explicitly rejected this option last Thursday in his appearance at Ferraz’s head office. He would mean that he would put his partners in the stress to support him in such a difficult situation.
Perhaps it is the easiest way for Sánchez how to depend on him alone.
Censorship movement
The motion of censorship is presented by opposition parties, With the company of fifty delegates. It does not depend on the president’s decision, but of Alberto Núñez Feijóo in this case.
Sanchez arrived in the presidency in July 2018 thanks to a motion of disapproval against Mariano Rajoy, exactly for the corruption of the PP.
The problem is that the PP leader does not have enough votes to help it move forward. I would have that from Vox, but you need that of Junts and PNV to win it.
At present, the two sovereign parties have expressed their rejection because the Vox includes, a party that In his program, the illegalization of independent.
That is why Feijóo does not want to present it, despite the pressure of some sectors of his party. In Spain there has already been Four failed censorship movements And in this case Feijóo understands that if he were to present it, he would concentrate on his failure rather than in the situation of remarkable deterioration of Sánchez. Understand it would be An oxygen ball for the socialist leader.
